Letter:
Raw Data and the Human Touch

New York, November 21, 2018

Dear Friends and Colleagues,

The holistic angle to capital flow analysis is a cornerstone of our approach at Exante Data.  To that end, yesterday we hosted a capital flow focused round table in New York, with participation of institutional investors, global banks, as well as market participants from the official sector (reserve managers etc.).

CapFlowRoundtableNov2018

Exante Data Capital Flow Round Table – New York Nov 20, 2018

We discussed three main topics:

  • Trends in Chinese capital flows, including the potential for reserve manager CNY buying and bond inflows on the back of index inclusions.
  • The outlook for EM capital flows (after a rough 2018, with a structural shift in EM debt flows).
  • The role of the dollar, including fresh risks of intervention/manipulation (by an expanding list of sovereigns).

This was our first such round table but we plan to do them regularly going forward. The philosophy is simple: We believe in the power of raw data. At the same time, we also believe the value of data can be greatly enhanced when combined with a ‘human touch’. While hard core statistics are indispensable, we often find that a ‘human’ perspective can be invaluable around regime shifts. Our capital flow round tables are just one way we collect different perspectives.

We would like to thank Alberto Musalem, Brad Setser, and Mark Sobel for presenting their insights. We always learn a lot from their perspectives, in part based on their prior experience from the official sector.

If you would like to be invited to future capital flow round tables please fill out this short form (see link), and we will try to make it happen (although we may not be able to invite press representatives, since the discussions are confidential).

And now a quick business update: We continue to expand our Global Flow Analytics platform. We have recently added unique data on greenfield FDI flows, portfolio flows from mutual fund investors and FX positioning within global fixed income funds. We are excited to provide truly unique data in these important areas. If you have any questions on these new data sets, do let us know.

In addition, we are expanding the analytical team at Exante Data, and we have been advertising various open positions, in the areas of flow and macro analysis. The job posts are here. If you have any personal recommendations, we value those too. 

Jens Nordvig
Founder and CEO
Exante Data LLC